There are no trades this month. It is not uncommon to find the US stock market (SPY) in somewhat of a holding pattern during an election year, awaiting the outcome of the election in order to find a trend. However, with major governments around the world already using negative interest rates or publicly considering them, US government bonds (IEF) remain strong despite historic low interest rates. US real estate (IYR) fell 10%+ over the last couple of months, but looks to be recovering. We will keep an eye on it as we approach the next Pro-Folio USA decision date at the end of the month.
Around the world, equities (EFA) remain weak as developed nations struggle with high debt ratios dragging on their economic growth outlook. And, last but not least, commodities (DJP) remain down as China’s demand for materials stays sluggish.
The Pro-Folio USA model evaluates its holdings on a monthly basis. There are no trades this month. As of the last trading day of February (29th), we have the following trade signals:
For existing investors:
You should have spent the month of February invested in the holdings above that are marked HOLD or SELL. You should have kept the cash equivalent of the positions marked AVOID or BUY, ready to invest when those segment signals turn positive. Now, you should maintain your current portfolio positions.
For new investors:
If you are new to Pro-Folio USA this month, you should divide your portfolio into 5 equal parts, and invest an equal amount of money in each of the securities shown above, marked as “HOLD” or “BUY.” Because you didn’t invest in the “HOLD” components of the model at the time when the buy signal first turned positive, your return on these initial trades may not be reflective of the model’s typical expected returns.
I have annoyed myself by not getting around to the 2015 performance analysis, but I have not forgotten – I will keep it top of list.
The markets may be uncertain, but fortunately for us, the Pro-Folio USA model has never lost more than than 1% of portfolio value: that was 2008, the worst year in recent memory and the only year on record that Pro-Folio USA lost value. Keep in mind, the long term average growth of the model is north of 8% per year. We can continue to follow the model with confidence that our assets will be protected.
If you want to get the PDF booklet showing you how to implement the Pro-Folio USA trading model on your own, click here.
If you want to learn more about the Pro-Folio Global upgrade portfolio, click here.
Dear reader, spring is not too far away. Thank you for your interest in Pro-Folio USA!