Not a lot has changed since the start of September – weakness remains in the global stock markets, broad commodities are showing no upward momentum of any kind, and US Real Estate is in a holding pattern. Going into November, however, US stocks have returned above the threshold. Buy SPY and hold US government bonds.
The Pro-Folio USA model evaluates its holdings on a monthly basis. There is one trade this month. As of the last trading day of October (30th), we have the following trade signals:
For existing investors:
You should have spent the month of October invested in the holdings above that are marked HOLD or SELL. You should have kept the cash equivalent of the positions marked AVOID, ready to invest when those segment signals turn positive. Now, take the cash that you have reserved for SPY, and invest it into that fund.
For new investors:
If you are new to Pro-Folio USA this month, you should divide your portfolio into 5 equal parts, and invest an equal amount of money in each of the securities shown above, marked as “HOLD” or “BUY.” Because you didn’t invest in the “HOLD” components of the model at the time when the buy signal first turned positive, your return on these initial trades may not be reflective of the model’s typical expected returns.
Congress has resolved the budget issue for the next two years, which removes uncertainty for the US markets for a while. This uncertainty has been present for a long time. Fundamentally not much has changed and there are signs of economic downturn ahead, so we will keep a close eye on the US stock market.
Fortunately for us, the Pro-Folio USA model lost less than 1% of value in 2008, the worst year in recent memory and the only year on record that Pro-Folio USA lost value. As shown in the 2014 performance numbers that I posted recently, the long term average growth of the model is north of 8% per year. We can continue to follow the model with confidence that our assets will be protected.
If you want to get the PDF booklet showing you how to implement the Pro-Folio USA trading model on your own, click here.
If you want to learn more about the Pro-Folio Global upgrade portfolio, click here.
Dear reader, in this month of Thanksgiving, I am thankful for your interest in Pro-Folio. I am also thankful for a wonderful family and an interesting life!